Outcome Probabilities

45%IF

25%Draw

30%FK

Market impliedLocked

–%

AI Analysis

The takeaways

Verdict

Djurgardens are the moderate lean to win, though it should be a competitive match with a draw a real possibility given how tight the table is.

Quality of form

Both teams read the same W-D-W-W-L over their last five, but Djurgardens beat a direct rival (Hacken) away and thrashed bottom-side Halmstad with real chance creation, while Vasteras's wins came against relegation-zone teams and their tougher test at Mjallby saw them concede plenty of good chances despite drawing 0-0.

Home/away splits

Djurgardens have a strong away record this season, while Vasteras have struggled at home and are actually stronger on the road, which works against them in this home fixture.

Head-to-head

Djurgardens have won three of the last five meetings including both league games in 2024, with Vasteras yet to beat them in that span.

Injuries and attacking threat

Vasteras are missing three players to recent injuries which dents their depth, while Djurgardens' two absences look less pressing, though Vasteras still have a strong individual threat in Ladefoged, the division's joint-third-top scorer.

Djurgardens IF host Vasteras SK FK at 3Arena in matchday 15 of Allsvenskan, with both sides sitting close together in the table — Djurgardens third on 23 points, Vasteras fifth on 22 — and both chasing European qualification places behind runaway leaders Sirius.

Form on paper looks identical: both teams read WDWWL across their last five. But the substance behind those results favours Djurgardens. Their win over BK Hacken (fourth-placed, 23 points) came away from home, a genuinely strong result against a direct rival, and they backed it up with a comfortable 3-0 home win over bottom club Halmstad, with an expected-goals reading of 2.66 in that game showing real chance creation. Vasteras's wins have come against weaker opposition — Degerfors and Orgryte, both in the relegation zone — and their one meaningful test, a goalless draw away to Mjallby, saw them concede chances worth roughly 2.4 goals despite a 0-0 scoreline, a sign their underlying defensive numbers were shakier than the result suggests. Djurgardens' own expected-points tally (9.5) sits well below their actual points (18) across the sampled matches, meaning some of their results have flattered them too, but the gap is similar in kind for Vasteras (8.4 expected versus 14 actual), so this doesn't change the comparison much.

Home form adds to the case: Djurgardens have won 4 of 6 away matches this season and are unbeaten in their last two on the road, while at home they've been solid if unspectacular. Vasteras, by contrast, have taken only 2 wins from 7 at home with 3 draws — their away record is actually their strength (4 wins from 7), which cuts against them here since they're on the road this time.