World Cup · Group Stage - 2
Netherlands
SwedenSat, 20 Jun 2026 · 17:00 · NRG Stadium
At a glance
Netherlands form
Sweden form
H2H last 2
for Netherlands
Outcome Probabilities
AI Analysis
Group Stage - 2, Group F. Netherlands vs Sweden. NRG Stadium, Houston. Neutral venue.
TOURNAMENT CONTEXT
This is the second round of Group F. Sweden sit top after a commanding 5-1 win over Tunisia in their opener, while Netherlands drew 2-2 with Japan. Both sides have two matches remaining, and the top two advance automatically to the knockout round. A win here would put either team in a very strong position to progress; a defeat leaves the loser needing a result in the final round. The stakes are real and roughly symmetrical — both teams need points.
HOW THE MATCH SHAPES UP
Netherlands enter this fixture as the higher-ranked side by a meaningful margin — eighth in the world against Sweden's 38th — and that gap in FIFA points is substantial enough to represent a genuine quality difference, not just a nominal one. However, the tournament evidence so far complicates that picture.
Netherlands' opening match against Japan was unconvincing. They drew 2-2 despite 60 percent possession and only 1.02 expected goals from their own attacks — a figure that suggests they created very little of genuine quality. Ryan Gravenberch provided both assists and Crysencio Summerville and Virgil van Dijk got on the scoresheet, but the underlying numbers point to a team that has not yet found its rhythm in front of goal. Their pre-tournament friendlies were similarly mixed: a loss to Algeria, a draw with Ecuador, and narrow wins over Uzbekistan and Norway — none of those opponents are near-peers at the top level.
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