Outcome Probabilities

28%Iraq

26%Draw

46%Norway

Market impliedLocked

–%

Market Edge

Model sees no edge at current market odds.

Market: — · Sharp consensus (Pinnacle, Bet365, Betfair) · Snapshot 4h ago · Not real-time

AI Analysis

This is a World Cup Group Stage opener between Iraq and Norway, played at Gillette Stadium in Massachusetts. The venue is fully neutral with no host nation advantage for either side.

SPORTING OUTLOOK

Norway enter this match as the clearly superior side on paper. Ranked 31st in the world against Iraq's 57th, the points gap between the two sides is meaningful — roughly 111 points — placing Norway in the "clear favourite" bracket by any reasonable quality benchmark.

Norway's recent form is encouraging. Their standout result is a 4-1 away win over Italy in World Cup qualifying, a top-15 side, which is a high-quality scalp regardless of context. They followed that with a home win over Sweden, a near-peer ranked 38th, and drew away to Morocco, ranked 7th in the world. The loss to the Netherlands was against a top-10 side and came with Norway holding over 50% possession, suggesting they were competitive. Their attacking output in the Sweden win — seven shots on target with 55% possession — shows they can dominate when the quality gap allows.

Iraq's recent form is more mixed and harder to read. The draw with Spain is eye-catching on the surface, but Iraq managed just two shots on target with 34% possession — a deeply passive performance that suggests Spain were not at full intensity. The loss to Venezuela, ranked 49th and only marginally weaker than Iraq themselves, is a more honest signal. A narrow win over Andorra, ranked 172nd, adds little. Iraq's qualifying campaign showed Aymen Hussein as a reliable scorer, but the level of opposition in Asian qualifying is considerably lower than what Norway have been tested against.

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